Monday, May 5, 2014

Fw: China going step-by-cautious-step in economic overhaul

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From: "CFA Institute Financial NewsBrief: Asia Pacific Edition" <cfa_ap@smartbrief.com>
Date: Mon, 5 May 2014 17:00:31 -0500 (CDT)
To: <mainandwall@yahoo.com>
Subject: China going step-by-cautious-step in economic overhaul

HSBC China manufacturing continues to shrink | IMF calls for overhaul of Philippine tax system | German economy seen leading an improving Europe
Created for mainandwall@yahoo.com |  Web Version
 
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May 6, 2014
CFA Institute: Financial NewsBrief - Aisa Pacific Edition
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China going step-by-cautious-step in economic overhaul
Assessing China's economic reforms after six months, economists note that Beijing is tackling easier steps first and leaving more difficult, pain-inducing actions -- such as tearing down state monopolies and freeing interest rates -- for later. Nonetheless, the steps taken so far have moved the country significantly along the road to a more balanced economy, they say. Reuters (5/4)
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HSBC China manufacturing continues to shrink
China's manufacturing sector marked a fourth month in contraction in April, with the final HSBC purchasing managers index at 48.1, up only a notch from the March reading of 48. "Both the new export orders and employment sub-indices contracted, and were revised down from the earlier flash readings. These indicate that the manufacturing sector, and the broader economy as a whole, continues to lose momentum," said Qu Hongbin, HSBC's chief economist for China. Analysts now expect Beijing to consider more stimulus measures after sustained shrinkage in the sector. Bloomberg (5/5), The Wall Street Journal (tiered subscription model) (5/5), Xinhuanet.com (China) (5/5)
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IMF calls for overhaul of Philippine tax system
The Philippine government needs to overhaul the nation's tax system and broaden its revenue base to match the systems of similarly developed nations and distribute the burden more equally, the International Monetary Fund says. "It also would be a level playing field for investment and corporate governance," said Shanaka Jayanath Peiris, the IMF's resident representative for the Philippines. Business World (Philippines) (5/4)
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German economy seen leading an improving Europe
Germany will outpace the European economy this year and next, growing 1.8% and 2% with the help of plentiful financing for investment and a low inflation rate, according to the European Commission. The commission also forecast improving economies throughout Europe, but the estimate did not take into account any disruptive effects from the continuing crisis in Ukraine. Bloomberg (5/5)
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Banks get back into pre-meltdown business of lending to buy complex assets
Bank lending for complex debt securities that largely dried up after the global economic meltdown is coming back in force, with several major banks shelling out money for that purpose to hedge funds and others. Collateralized loan obligations are the object of much of the buying, and bank lending for such purposes comes as many banks may need to begin offloading their own CLOs under new, stricter regulations. The Wall Street Journal (tiered subscription model) (5/4)
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Regulatory Update
Regulators struggle to oversee shadow banking
Global regulators are keen to establish oversight mechanisms to monitor shadow banking but say they need more data. "I think we have a long way to go to fully understand all the connectivities and subtleties of the financial system," said David Wright, secretary-general of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions. Reuters (5/2)
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Economic Trends & Outlook
European Commission predicts even lower inflation
The European Commission's latest forecast for the eurozone sees continued economic recovery but raises an inflation red flag, lowering this year's predicted rate to 0.8% from 1%. Financial Times (tiered subscription model) (5/5)
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U.S. service sector expands strongly in April
More evidence emerged of an April thaw in the U.S. economy with a private purchasing managers index showing the service sector growing at its fastest rate in eight months. The Institute for Supply Management reading of 55.2 was up from 53.1 in March for the 52nd straight month of expansion. Reuters (5/5)
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China acts to lift service sector's share of trade
China is looking to raise the service sector's share of trade to 20% from the current 12.8% and is taking active measures to speed the process. Favorable tax rates and subsidies are part of the plan. "Boosting the services trade is of great significance in speeding up the government's efforts to restructure the economy, improve the quality of economic growth and create more jobs for university graduates," said Commerce Ministry spokesman Yao Jian. The Wall Street Journal (tiered subscription model) (5/5)
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South Korea cyclical gauge points to cooling economy
A key South Korean economic gauge declined in March, indicating a cooling economy even before the Sewol ferry disaster. The cyclical component of the composite leading index, which points to future developments, fell 0.3 point to 101.2 from the month before, marking two straight months of decline, Statistics Korea reported. MK.co.kr (South Korea)/Yonhap News Agency (South Korea) (5/5)
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Bank of Korea pledges no startling rate moves
The Bank of Korea is promising no surprises when it decides to change its benchmark interest rate. Governor Lee Ju-yeol said markets could expect signals from the bank two to three months before an adjustment is made. MK.co.kr (South Korea) (5/5)
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Australia central bank expected to keep rates on hold
A strong Australian dollar and pared government spending counterbalance a brighter job market and consumer price gains among factors the central bank is likely to weigh today before deciding to keep rates steady, analysts say. One cautionary sign, however, is evidence of a slowdown in the nation's housing boom. The Sydney Morning Herald (Australia) (5/5)
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Mineral-exports ban hobbles Indonesia growth
Indonesia's growth rate in the first quarter came in below expectations at 5.2%, the slowest in five years amid a contested government ban on raw mineral exports. Financial Times (tiered subscription model) (5/5)
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With inflation tame, no rate movement expected in Philippines
With April's inflation rate forecast at 4%, well within the Philippine central bank's target range, analysts expect the bank to steer a steady course on policy rates when members meet Thursday. "The inflation trajectory looks more muted than it did a few months ago," said BNP Paribas economist Philip McNicholas. Business World (Philippines) (5/4)
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Vietnam manufacturing gauge climbs to record
Spurred by new business, Vietnam's composite purchasing managers index for manufacturing registered a record reading of 53.1 last month, rising sharply from 51.3 in March. April was the seventh straight month of gain in the HSBC index. Xinhuanet.com (China) (5/5)
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Capital Markets & Financial Products
China National Nuclear plans major IPO
What could be the largest initial public offering in mainland China in nearly four years is coming from China National Nuclear Power. The IPO would raise as much as 16.25 billion yuan as part of Beijing's drive to tackle air pollution with nuclear and renewable energy sources. The Wall Street Journal (tiered subscription model) (5/5)
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Europeans turn to South Korean bond market
South Korean bonds are currently in favor among European investors seeking high returns, with Norway and Switzerland leading the way. As of the end of March, Norwegian investment was up 4.7% from the end of last year and Swiss investment was up 16.1%, even as investment from the U.S. fell 6.1%. Yonhap News Agency (South Korea) (subscription required) (5/5)
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Paradoxically, 30-year U.S. Treasurys in short supply
Increased foreign buying and U.S. rules requiring pension funds to beef up their assets are causing a market shortage in 30-year Treasurys even as the Federal Reserve scales back its buying program. "The long bond is marching to the tune of its own drum. There is natural institutional demand," said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates in Toronto. Bloomberg (5/5)
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No shortage of business for China hedge funds at home
China's hedge funds are in such demand at home that only a few are planning to branch out overseas. Hedge funds fall mainly under the category of sunshine investment trusts, of which there are about 2,500 with as much as 300 billion yuan in assets under management, mainly from high-net-worth individual investors and families. AsianInvestor.net (5/5)
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